After residential solar grew 8% in 2018, the sector has continued to stabilize in the first half of this year, with 8% year-over-year growth in Q2 following 7% year-over-year growth in Q1. Utility PV maintained the largest share of installed capacity in the U.S. solar market this quarter. However, voluntary procurement of utility PV based on its economic competitiveness continues to be the primary driver of projects announced in 2019, accounting for 55% of total announcements. Non-residential installation totals in Q2 2019 were the weakest since Q3 2016. However, this will be incrementally offset starting in 2020 as the next wave of states with robust community solar mandates – New York, Maryland, Illinois and New Jersey – experience growth. Solar Market Insight report series expanded its coverage to include pricing information on mono wafer, mono cells and mono modules, in addition to their multi counterparts. With utility PV remaining economically competitive with other sources of generation, demand for utility PV remains strong through the decade, creating 13.7 GWdc of expected capacity additions in 2025. These combined factors materialized into record-breaking installations in Q4 2019, making California the first U.S. state to install more than 300 MW in a single quarter and ending the year with more than 1 GW of residential solar installed for the third time in history. This has brought the cumulative contracted pipeline to a new record total of 48.1 GWdc. Each quarter, we collect granular data on the U.S. solar market from nearly 200 utilities, state agencies, installers and manufacturers. Recent policy developments in the Northeast will ultimately spur growth in our long-term outlook. Increasing solar-plus-storage viability will also begin to have an impact on non-residential demand as policymakers and business leaders increasingly consider energy storage in their decisions. To purchase the full report, click here. Consequently, Wood Mackenzie expects that corporate demand will drive over 20% of utility solar development from 2019-2024. For example, Maryland’s recent renewable portfolio standard increase, the removal of South Carolina’s net metering cap and new incentive programs such as Illinois’ Adjustable Block Program all provide upside potential to our residential forecasts over the next few years. Mature markets continue to see modest to flat growth rates despite consistent volumes, owing to increased challenges in customer acquisition at higher penetration levels. Source: Wood Mackenzie / SEIA U.S. As new mono cell production capacities continued to come online in Q4, their prices held steady in the second half of 2019. This data provides the backbone of this U.S. solar market insight Detailed information about national system prices by market segment and component is available in the full report. After growing 8 percent in 2018, the residential market continued apace over the first half of 2019, with installations trending 7% higher than in the same period last year. Nevertheless, mono module prices fell by two cents in Q4, reflecting a healthy supply level. SOLAR MARKET INSIGHT, 2018 year in review, March 2019 Source: Wood Mackenzie; Bloomberg NEF 17 REC expanded its customer base and country reach To meet this moment and provide guidance for the incoming Biden administration and new members of Congress, SEIA has prepared a 100-day legislative and executive agenda. By 2023, roughly 30% of total non-residential PV capacity will come from community solar, and 20% of all non-residential capacity is expected to have storage attached. Currently, 3.7 GWdc of the projects expected to come online in 2020 have a corporate offtaker, representing 28% of the 2020 forecast. 1 SEIA / Wood Mackenzie, U.S. While this contributed to minor deployment declines in 2019, the year also marked the long-expected emergence of New York as a major community solar market. Source: Wood Mackenzie / SEIA U.S. This represents a weighted average of multi-silicon and mono PERC solar modules as opposed to pricing for multi-silicon modules only. Multi cell global spot prices continued to fall for the second quarter in a row, responding … New project announcements are exceeding projects completed as developers and utilities are working to safe-harbor as much capacity as possible before the ITC steps down. This methodology is based on tracked wholesale pricing of major solar components and data collected from interviews with major installers. This year’s figures represent a slight increase over the 1,144 MW installed in 2018, while the cumulative count for corporate solar now stands at more than 8 GW across 38,000 projects. Prices across all market segments are now at an all-time low: $2.87/Wdc, $1.45/Wdc, $0.90/Wdc and $1.01/Wdc for residential, non-residential, utility fixed-tilt and utility single-axis tracking systems, respectively. Mono PERC module prices increased by nearly three cents to $0.43/W, reflecting strong demand in the U.S. market. This reflects 23% annual growth over 2018 and slightly exceeds a 13 GW forecast offered previously by Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables and the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA). Starting with the report released in June 2016 onward, the report title will reference the quarter in which the report is released, as opposed to the most recent quarter in which installation figures are tracked. America exited 2019 with 13.3 GW DC of new solar power capacity installed in the country during the year. Solar Market Insight Report. Meanwhile, Maryland and Maine have both passed more aggressive RPS policies, which are expected to boost lagging REC markets. The 2020 election will have tremendous consequences for the future of energy and climate policy in the United States. Download this report. Meanwhile, New Jersey regulators have approved the first batch of community solar projects for the program’s initial pilot year. In 2018, the US market installed 10.6 GW of annual installations (see 10.6 GW New Solar … At the outset of the COVID-19 pandemic, we heard scattered reports of medium- and long-term decreases to the availability of tax equity financing, as well as those who faced immediate challenges. Detailed data and forecasts by state are available in the Full Report. Conversely, total non-residential PV (which includes commercial, government, nonprofit and community solar) declined relative to 2018 due to policy transitions and persistent interconnection issues in key commercial markets. A crucial driver of growth for residential PV has been the public-safety power shutoff (PSPS) events in California. As a result, the Bay State had its lowest annual non-residential PV installed capacity total since 2013. Wood Mackenzie Power and Renewables (WM P&R) partners with Clean Power Research to acquire project-level datasets from participating utilities that utilize the PowerClerk product platform. Solar Market InsightTM report shows the major trends in the U.S. solar industry. Source: Wood Mackenzie / SEIA U.S. Cumulative operating PV capacity in the U.S. now exceeds 76 GW, up from just 1 GW at the end of 2009. New Jersey regulators have approved a transitional incentive program, slightly raising incentive values for community solar projects that appear to be workable across most market sub-segments. References, data, charts and analysis from this executive summary should be attributed to “Wood Mackenzie/SEIA U.S. solar market insight®.”. This surge was driven by developers and utilities safe-harboring as much capacity as possible to qualify for the full 30% ITC before it stepped down to 26% on 1 January 2020. Each quarter, we collect granular data on the U.S. solar market from nearly 200 utilities, state agencies, installers and manufacturers. In the long term, the ITC step-down is expected to pull in demand in both legacy and emerging markets before expiring in 2022 for customer-owned systems. Solar Market InsightTM report shows the major trends in the U.S. solar industry. Instead, the top five state markets are a mixture of mature and emerging markets, with solid installation totals coming from established markets such as California and Arizona but also from newcomers Florida (No. Solar Market InsightTM report shows the major trends in the U.S. solar industry. Polysilicon prices dropped by over 8% in Q2, a continuation of an 18-month-long trend. In the case of California, installations declined year-over-year stemming from the transition to new time-of-use rates and the resulting damage to the favorability of project economics. The U.S. solar market insight® is offered in two versions – the Executive Summary and the Full Report. Solar Market Insight™ is a collaboration between the Solar Energy Industries Association® (SEIA®) and Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables that brings high-quality, solar-specific analysis and forecasts to industry professionals in the form of quarterly and annual reports. The 2020 election will have tremendous consequences for the future of energy and climate policy in the United States. The quarterly SEIA/Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables U.S. To download the Solar Market Insight 2019 Q3 Executive Summary, please fill out the information below. In the U.S., multi-silicon module prices declined slightly to $0.35/W in Q2 2019 from $0.36/W in Q1 2019. Solar accounted for 40% of all new electricity generating capacity added in the U.S. in 2019. Several utilities, including Duke Energy, NV Energy, Clean Power Alliance and East Bay Community Energy, have announced large solar procurements, and announcements from corporate offtakers such as Starbucks, Microsoft and Anheuser-Busch have also increased. At the time of publication, the full impacts of the coronavirus outbreak on the solar industry were still developing. Polysilicon prices decreased by more than 4% in Q3, creating a trickle-down price reduction along the entire supply chain. System pricing fell quarter-over-quarter by 0.7%, 1.1%, 2.8% and 2.5% in the residential, non-residential, utility fixed-tilt and utility single-axis tracking markets, respectively. Solar Shines on the Hill Day on December 5th PM . The largest share of installations during the record-breaking quarter … In Q4 2019, global spot market pricing for all major components declined by various degrees from the previous quarter. The news comes via the preliminary data release of the Q2 U.S. There was 6.2 GWdc of new projects announced in Q2 2019, including 2.8 GWdc specifically targeting 2020 COD and 2.3 GWdc targeting 2021 COD. The low cost of utility PV has also increased demand from corporate offtakers – in the first half of 2019, 2.4 GW of utility-scale solar projects with corporate offtakers were announced. A total of 1.1 GWdc of utility PV capacity came online in Q2 2019, representing 49% of quarterly capacity additions. Media inquiries should be directed to Wood Mackenzie’s PR team (WoodmacPR@woodmac.com) and Morgan Lyons (mlyons@seia.org) at SEIA. Climate Alliance pledge to reduce economywide emissions by 28% by 2025, and eight governors have issued executive orders mandating increases in renewable or clean-energy targets in their states. The Executive Summary is free, and the Full Report is available individually each quarter or as part of an annual subscription. Without tariffs, bifacial modules were, on average, competitive in price with mono-facial modules. U.S. solar market insight® is a quarterly publication of Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables, Inc. d/b/a Greentech Media and the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA)®. According to a new report from Wood Mackenzie/SEIA U.S. Mono cell prices also declined, indicating an end to the cell supply shortage. The quarterly SEIA/Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables U.S. While growth in these emerging markets is driven by increasingly attractive project economics, geographic diversification has also resulted in part from a slowdown in Northeast markets. Across all market segments, solar PV accounted for 36% of all new electricity generating capacity additions in the first half of 2019. The 2021-2024 forecast saw a cumulative increase of 1.6 GWdc as more utilities begin procurement of utility-scale PV that was either previously outlined in resource planning documents or needed in order to fill capacity needs. Solar Market Insight report from Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables and the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA). It is likely that not all projects announced in 2019 were able to qualify for the 30% investment tax credit (ITC). We also use this analysis to look forward and forecast demand over the next five years. Note on U.S. solar market insight report title: WM P&R and SEIA have changed the naming convention for the U.S. solar market insight report series. This procurement has been driven by the low cost of utility PV, with recently signed PPA prices ranging from $18 to $35/MWh. Mono cell global spot prices continued to fall for the second quarter in a row, further confirming that the … The quarter saw 1 GWdc of utility-scale installations – slightly lower than average – but with new project procurement growing the contracted pipeline to a record high of 37.9 GWdc. Maryland’s recent renewable portfolio standard (RPS) increase, the removal of South Carolina’s net metering cap, and new incentive programs such as Illinois’ Adjustable Block Program will provide significant upside and growth to our residential forecasts over the next few years. Solar Market Insight Report. In this region, higher levels of solar penetration and resulting steep customer-acquisition costs have slowed installation volumes since the peak installation years as the markets have grown past the segment of early-adopter consumers. Released December 15, 2020. The utility PV sector served as the bedrock of the U.S. solar industry in 2019, accounting for 63% of annual capacity additions. While a portion of this can be attributed to 2.0 GWdc of newly procured projects with 2022-2024 target CODs, we expect that utility demand for solar will continue to increase. Conversely, non-residential PV suffered both quarterly and annual declines due to policy transitions and persistent interconnection issues in key commercial markets. However, there has been a rise in the number of projects driven by renewable portfolio standards, increasing from 10% in 2018 to 14% in 2019. This data provides the backbone of this U.S. solar market insight® report, in which we identify and analyze trends in U.S. solar demand, manufacturing and pricing by state and market segment. Starting with the report released in June 2016 onward, the report title will reference the quarter in which the report is released, as opposed to the most recent quarter in which installation figures are tracked. Utility PV maintained the largest share of 2019 installed capacity in the U.S., representing 63% of all PV capacity installed during the year. Although the Trump administration’s tariffs on solar modules and other component parts have imposed additional costs, utility PV has continued to be cost-competitive with other generating sources in the U.S. Additionally, the number of states and utilities pledging renewable-energy or carbon-reduction targets continues to rise. That being said, positive policy developments in New York, Maryland, Maine and New Jersey in H1 2019 will collectively allow the market to grow in the period 2020-2022 before it declines in 2023 in response to the step-down of the solar Investment Tax Credit under current federal law. A similar trend holds true for multi modules. Get SEIA emails and stay on top of the latest solar news in your state. The contracted pipeline has ballooned to 37.9 GWdc, the highest it has ever been in the history of U.S. utility solar. For more information on Clean Power Research’s product offerings, visit https://www.cleanpower.com/. As these states continue to grow past early-adopter consumers, higher costs of customer acquisition will challenge the industry to innovate product offerings and continue to diversify geographically. Unlike the residential market, a handful of state-specific regulatory cliffs and policy reforms that took effect in 2018 continued to impact non-residential installations in H1 2019. In the U.S., multi-silicon module prices collapsed to 0.22/watt in Q4 2019, further proof that multi modules are essentially obsolete in the U.S. market. Detailed data and forecasts for 50 states and Washington, D.C. are contained within the full version of this report. Positive policy developments in New York, Maryland, Maine and New Jersey over the first half of 2019 will boost the non-residential market from 2020 through 2022 before a decline in 2023 begins in response to the step-down of the solar Investment Tax Credit under current federal law. Given the dynamic nature of the outbreak, it is too early to incorporate any changes into our outlooks with enough certainty. Australia hit the milestone in late 2018, and Wood Mackenzie notes that Japan topped 2 million back in September 2014.. The procurement needed to fulfill the many renewable-energy and zero-carbon commitments recently made by cities, states and utilities is just starting to occur, with significant additional procurement driven by renewable portfolio standards expected in the near to medium term. More than one-third of these projects are located in Texas, spurring rapid growth in the Lone Star State. While a short-term increase in demand could be inflated by corporate offtakers securing low-priced power-purchase agreements before the ITC steps down, we believe offsite corporate demand will continue to grow across the U.S. as more corporate and industrial offtakers pledge to become carbon-neutral or powered by 100% renewables. Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables | U.S. Research Team, Austin Perea, Senior Solar Analyst (lead author)Colin Smith, Senior Solar AnalystMichelle Davis, Senior Solar AnalystXiaojing Sun, Senior Solar AnalystBryan White, Solar AnalystMolly Cox, Solar Analyst, Solar Energy Industries Association | SEIA, Shawn Rumery, Director of ResearchAaron Holm, Data EngineerRachel Goldstein, Solar and Storage AnalystJustin Baca, Vice President of Markets & Research. Overall, the non-residential PV market is on track for another down year as the segment acclimates to a reduced incentive environment across major state markets. In 2010, California was the only state to deploy more than 100 MW of residential installations. Starting in Q1 2019, the U.S. solar market insight report series expanded its coverage to include pricing information on mono wafers, mono cells and mono modules, in addition to their multi counterparts. Solar Market Insight 2019 Year-in-Review report, released by the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) and Wood Mackenzie, solar accounted for … Washington, DC. US Solar Market Insight® is a report on the state of the US solar market by Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables and the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA)® which is published quarterly. As the wind-focused federal Production Tax Credit steps down, solar begins to fall below the cost of wind on a levelized cost of energy basis in many traditional wind states. U.S. Our analysts collect granular data on the US solar market from nearly 200 utilities, state agencies, installers and manufacturers. After record-high procurement of 15 GWdc in 2018, procurement has surged to 11.2 GWdc in the first half of 2019, with 6.2 GWdc in Q2 alone. T… Wood Mackenzie’s solar team is tracking industry changes closely as they relate to solar equipment supply chains, component pricing and project development timelines, taking these impacts into consideration for future publications. For more information on Clean Power Research’s product offerings, visit. Learn more about the U.S. Year-over-year system pricing fell by 6.8%, 7.4%, 10.0% and 11.4% in the residential, non-residential, utility fixed-tilt and utility single-axis tracking markets, respectively. Each quarter, we collect granular data on the U.S. solar market from nearly 200 utilities, state agencies, installers and manufacturers. Meanwhile, Minnesota’s community solar pipeline continues to diminish as grandfathered projects are built without pipeline replenishment for projects compensated under revised export credit rules. The U.S. utility PV market is poised to see 83.2 GWdc installed from 2020 to 2025, more than double what was installed over the last five years. All forecasts are from Wood Mackenzie, Limited; SEIA does not predict future pricing, bid terms, costs, deployment or supply. In Massachusetts, non-residential deployment numbers continue to be impacted by interconnection delays, despite a pipeline of projects sitting mechanically complete. Across all market segments, solar PV accounted for nearly 40% of all new electricity-generating capacity additions in 2019 – its highest-ever share of new generating capacity. Solar Market Insight report series expanded its coverage to include pricing information on mono wafer, mono cells and mono modules, in addition to their multi counterparts. Twenty-eight states have formally established clean-energy or carbon-reduction targets, 23 states have signed the U.S. While some of these drivers are now specific to California, national press coverage of PSPS and wildfires in the state, along with increased international emphasis on climate solutions, may encourage residential solar adoption across the country. In New York, significant revisions to the Value of Distributed Energy Resources tariff, in conjunction with the approval of consolidated billing for community solar, have bolstered our long-term forecasts for both commercial and community solar. Wood Mackenzie’s solar team is tracking industry changes closely as they relate to solar equipment supply chains, component pricing and project development timelines, taking these impacts into consideration for future publications. Meanwhile, Florida cemented its place as the second-largest residential market in 2019 – the first time a low-penetration, non-incentivized market has achieved that designation. This has resulted in market declines on both a year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter basis. Starting in Q1 2019, the U.S. Note on U.S. solar market insight report title: WM P&R and SEIA have changed the naming convention for the U.S. solar market insight report series. In 2019, California also demonstrated that residential solar adoption across the U.S. can be driven by other factors such as resiliency and concerns about climate change. Solar accounted for nearly 40% of all new electricity generating capacity added in the U.S. in 2019, the largest annual share in the industry’s history. Q2 2019 was the fourth consecutive quarter of more than 600 MW, Wood Mackenzie forecasts 17% year-over-year growth in 2019, with 12.6 GW, Total installed U.S. PV capacity will more than double over the next five years, with annual installations reaching 17.6 GW, Utility PV pipeline currently totals 37.9 GW, References, data, charts and analysis from this executive summary should be attributed to “Wood Mackenzie/SEIA U.S. solar market insight, Media inquiries should be directed to Wood Mackenzie’s PR team (. This decrease is due to a handful of large projects that have pushed out target commercial operation dates (CODs) to 2020. US Solar Market Insight® is a report on the state of the US solar market by Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables and the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA)® which is published quarterly. Solar Market Insight® report, in which we identify and analyze trends in U.S. solar demand, manufacturing and pricing by state and market segment. The cumulative capacity of utility PV sits at 45.7 GWdc, representing 60% of all U.S. solar PV capacity. Register. Residential solar continues to see healthy installation volumes, growing 15% over 2018 levels – the highest annual growth rate since 2016. The U.S. residential solar market reached record highs in the third quarter of 2019, with 712 MW of solar installed, according to the latest U.S. We also use this analysis to look forward and … By the middle of the last decade, six states had reached that threshold.
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